Tariffs may disrupt global supply chains and reduce GDP
A model estimates that the proposed tariffs on China may have an overall effect of reducing GDP by 0.12%. The costs are primarily in the form of negative supply chain impacts – importers must replace lost suppliers and renegotiate with remaining ones. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rose from 2.7% in 2017 to 17.1% by the end of 2019 and U.S. firms were advised to seek alternatives to China.

The decline in housing affordability and impact on buyer’s search behavior
A Freddie Mac Research Note reports that the implied mortgage cost of owning a home is 32% greater than the rent on that same home. Monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance exceed comparable rent. This is the current price of building equity and collecting appreciation. The spread is lower than in 2023 and half its peak in 2006. But it’s significantly higher than 2012 to 2021 when it was closer to 20%.

Do landlords respond to wage policy?
Federal Reserve research estimates the minimum wage effect on apartment rent prices. Following a collection of studies that suggest minimum wage increases translate to apartment rent hikes, the analysis uses individual property data to conclude rent hikes response to minimum wage increases are small and short lived. Specifically, a 10% increase in minimum wage leads to only a 0.31% increase in rent that fades to zero increase by the sixth month.

Zoning reforms aren’t making a dent in California’s housing problems — not yet
Since 2017, California passed more than 100 laws affecting zoning, permitting and building focused on improving affordability. Despite these efforts (and their related costs), Los Angeles’ home value-to-income ratio has gone from bad to worse. A ratio below 4 is considered healthy and L.A.’s numbers increased from 8.2 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2022. This may not be an effective model to address California’s housing issues.