As the new Trump administration transitioned into the White House, Floridians seemed more upbeat, according to the latest data on consumer sentiment.

The economic outlook of Floridians inched up in January to the highest level in nearly five years, according to the latest survey from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). You have to go back to February 2020 — a month before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — to find a higher number, 102.3 (Figure 1). The latest index of 86.9 represented a small bump from December’s 86.7 and marked the latest in a string of increases totaling 14.3 points the last 12 months (Figure 2).

Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Floridians’ overall sentiment seems to run counter to the outlook of U.S. consumers, which declined to its lowest level in six months, according to the University of Michigan, which tracks the pulse of consumers nationwide. Hector Sandoval, an economist and director of UF’s BEBR’s Economic Analysis Program, said he wouldn’t make too much of the difference. “Florida’s sentiment only increased slightly and also showed declines in expectations for future conditions.” He noted that preliminary U.S. figures for February showed a decline across the board, likely due to the impact of tariff policies and the expectations of higher inflation. “We don’t have any preliminary data for Florida yet, but I suspect we may see something similar in February here,” he said.

Impact of national elections

Sandoval said the uptick in consumer sentiment in Florida may also reflect a trend in U.S. elections. He co-authored a study last year that found consumers exhibit greater confidence about economic conditions when their favored political party is in charge, particularly following presidential elections when the presidential party changed, such as in 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016. When a Democrat won the presidency, Democrats’ positive sentiments rose while Republicans’ positive sentiments declined, and vice versa when a Republican won. Given Florida voters favored Trump in the November election, this may explain at least part of the increase in sentiment.

Sandoval tempered expectations. “Floridians begin the year with improved views about current economic conditions but concerns about the future,” he said. “But expectations for the future declined, signaling concerns about potential challenges ahead.”

Among the five components that make up the index, two increased, driven by consumers’ improved views about their own personal economic conditions. But three components decreased, with the most pessimistic concerning future U.S. economic conditions over the next year and five years.

“Looking ahead, as immigration and trade policies under the new administration take shape, we anticipate increased uncertainty due to the unclear economic impacts of these policies,” Sandoval said. “Monitoring consumer sentiment will be crucial to assess how these policy changes may influence consumer attitudes and their economic outlook.”

Details on the survey

UF’s latest survey reflects the responses of a demographic sampling of 578 Florida adults who were contacted by cellphone or online between Dec. 1 and Jan. 30. Launched in 1966, the survey’s highest index was 111 in August 2000 while the lowest was 59 in August 2008.