Florida consumers are not pleased with the economy these days, but at least they’re more upbeat than a year ago.

Survey respondents’ overall sentiment fell two-tenths of a point to 73.1 in May from the previous month (Figure 1), but it’s an improvement from a year ago when it stood at 69.1, according to the latest survey from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). The numbers are based on an index, with 100 equal to the consumers’ confidence level when the survey began more than 50 years ago.

Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research

One of the biggest contributors to the consumers’ mediocre outlook is growing concern over high interest rates, indicated Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at BEBR. “Although inflation is not far above the Fed’s 2% target since peaking at 9.1% in 2022, progress against inflation has slowed down, demanding Floridians to make further adjustments to budgets and spending plans,” he said.

Nationally, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in May was unchanged at 3.3% over the past 12 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. But BLS’ measures for inflation in Florida remained higher than those for the nation. In its most recent surveys, the BLS reported that CPI increased 4.5% in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA, while the rate advanced 3.7% in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA. The BLS tracks the CPI in the two Florida regions only in alternate months.

Mixed opinions

Among the five components that make up the BEBR index, two showed an increase and three decreased. People’s views of their personal financial situations decreased 1.3 points to 59.9 from a year ago. Similarly, opinions whether now is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance or a vehicle decreased 1.6 points to 62.3. Floridians’ outlook of future economic conditions was mixed. More of those surveyed forecast their personal finances will improve in the coming year, up 2.7 points to 85.3. Regarding the national economy, respondents’ outlook for the next year increased one-tenth of a point to 76.3. But Floridians’ overall outlook for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years decreased seven-tenths of a point to 81.9.

BEBR noted that people 60 and older expressed more favorable views across all five components, while those younger than 60 were more pessimistic. The overall sentiment among Florida consumers aged 60 and older was 74.6 versus 71.5 for their younger counterparts. This is surprising because older individuals have historically registered more pessimistic views, BEBR said, perhaps reflecting factors such as reliance on fixed incomes from pensions, retirement savings and Social Security benefits, as well as higher health care expenses.

“Looking ahead, we anticipate consumer sentiment to remain around the same level in the coming months, especially given the slowdown in the progress against inflation,” Sandoval said.

Details on the survey

UF’s latest survey reflects the responses of a demographic sampling of 555 Florida adults who were surveyed by cellphone or online. Launched in 1966, the survey’s highest index was 111 in August 2000 while the lowest was 59 in August 2008. The last time the index was over 100 was in February 2020 just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 2).

Source: University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research